Lew, these are the pivotal factors WRT a 2022 Republican victory in either or both houses of Congress. (For the likely practical results of such a “victory”: look no further than 1994.)

1. The prevalence of Republican (so-called) ideas and ideals.
2. The commitment of Republican (so-called) leadership to the latter.
3. The (dis)regard of registered Republican voters to the latter two.
4. The awareness of registered Republican voters to any of the latter.
5. The care with which registered Republican voters pay to any of the latter: especially when it comes to actually showing up at the polls.

The contrary (and likely decisive) factors are:

1. The organized–illegal/unconstitutional/unchallenged–oppositional and successful practices as were waged against Trump 2020 et al. This has nothing to do with the candidates. Only with what can be gotten away with.
2. There is no #2.

Stay tuned.

Mark Higdon