The war in Syria is dangerous for the world because it has escalated and can escalate more under the orders of a U.S. president. From the very beginning, whatever civil war aspect it had and whatever the within-Syria opposition contingents and forces were, countries external to Syria like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Qatar launched armed resistance to Assad via proxy or stand-in forces, consisting of terrorists from outside Syria whom they supported. The U.S. worked for years on and off to undo Assad and control Syria.
Kerry’s recent statement on Syria that’s discussed by Daniel in the video within his blog today makes clear that Assad faces aggression from outside Syria. His admission implies that in its major dimensions the war in Syria has not been and is not now a civil war. This is well-known, but an explicit admission from the U.S. Secretary of State is remarkable.
Last February, it was widely reported that Turkey and Saudi Arabia were planning directly to invade Syria with their own forces. Turkey has invaded; Saudi Arabia, occupied with Yemen, has not. Assad didn’t flinch. He said “We’re going to deal with them like we deal with the terrorists. We’re going to defend our country. This is aggression.”
Kerry’s exact words that reference outside support for terrorists are
“Now, some people ask what happens to Aleppo if it were to fall. Well, the Russians should understand, and Assad needs to understand, that that does not end the war. This war cannot end without a political solution. So even if Aleppo were to fall, even if they have utterly destroyed it, which they are doing, that will not change the fundamental equation in this war because other countries will continue to support opposition, and they will continue to create more terrorists, and Syria will be the victim in the end as well as the region.”
Kerry says that the “fundamental equation of this war” is that “other countries…support opposition” and will keep this opposition going by creating more terrorists. Is this a forecast or a threat or both? Kerry acts as if the “other countries” promoting terrorist groups are separate and distinct from the U.S. and U.S. influence. But they are not. They are allies of the U.S. and the U.S. supports them in many ways. Obama has many means to stop Turkey and Saudi Arabia from sending well-armed terrorists into Syria or allowing them passage into Syria through their lands or purchasing their oil, but he hasn’t done this. Obama has preferred to continue the proxy war in Syria, even while Russia entered and fought the imported terrorists who have been the main forces battling Assad’s forces.
Eastern Aleppo is held by terrorists. It is this part of the city that is being attacked by Syrian forces. This battle is resulting in civilian loss of life. The terrorists have not capitulated. The civilian population therein is said to be between 40,000 and 250,000. Western Aleppo is in government hands, and its population is about 1,500,000. Kerry’s statement doesn’t distinguish them, and it should. Syrian forces are not “utterly destroying” all of Aleppo. The terrorists in the east have launched some rocket attacks on the west.
The war will end with ordinary politics resuming. That can happen in many ways, not simply the “political solution” that Kerry may envisage in which powers external to Syria sit down and concoct a peace. Following upon bloody battles and slaughter, the Syrian government makes peace in its own way, as it liberates villages and cities from the terrorists. The war is bloody. Ending the war is a piecemeal process. The processes used include village councils, amnesties, restoration of local government, and safe passage of hostile forces. If the West will not or cannot separate non-Syrian terrorists from Syrian and/or moderate rebels, the Assad forces can. This all comprises a political solution that’s ruled out and ignored by Kerry because it fails to remove Assad, fails to dismember Syria, and fails to satisfy his terrorist-supporting anti-Assad allies.
The human death and injury toll of this war is high. It’s likely to be the same in the offensive beginning against Mosul in Iraq. There has been a civilian death toll in Iraq too from the U.S. coalition’s battle against ISIS in that country. It is in the hundreds.
Kerry cannot morally condemn Assad and Russia for killing civilians when they fight to liberate eastern Aleppo from terrorists while approving the U.S. fighting to liberate Mosul and other places in Iraq from terrorists, fighting that also kills civilians. His humanitarian concerns are phony because the U.S. in one way or another has supported the terrorist, really radical jihadist, opposition to Assad for years.
Kerry is saying that Obama will continue the policy of tolerating and supporting terrorist proxy forces of his own allies. This is a remarkable statement. Kerry’s complete comments are here.
What the U.S. government should do is withdraw all its special forces from Syria, get the CIA out of Syria, stop the Pentagon from training rebels in Jordan or anywhere, stop its naval forces from threatening Syria, end sanctions on Syria, pressure Israel not to support terrorists in Syria, and pressure Saudi Arabia and others to end their support of terrorists.
8:48 am on October 17, 2016
