Pressed by their allies Lebanon and Israel have agreed on a cessation of fire.

The 13 points of the ceasefire agreement are reinstating UN Security Council resolution 1701. Thus the status quo ante has been restored. Last Rights: The Death... Bovard, James Best Price: $11.33 Buy New $19.99 (as of 04:01 UTC - Details)

I do regard as a pause in fighting, not as an end to the war.

Both sides are in need of a pause.

The Israeli Defense Forces are depending on reservists. It is organized to fight short, high intensity wars. But it has now been in the field for over 14 month. Many of its reservists simply fail to show up when they are recalled for another round of fighting. High material and human losses at the front in Lebanon, where little to no progress was made, have further weakened the force.

The Lebanese resistance movement Hizbullah is likewise in need of a time-out. The Israeli attacks on its leadership have seriously weakened its organization. Its local fighters have managed to resist Israeli attacks on the frontline and its missile forces were able to hit Israel where it hurts. But the utter destruction caused by Israeli air attacks were threatening its support within the wider population of Lebanon.

Both sides will claim to have won the war. Hizbullah has managed to resist against a very capable Israeli enemy which is in itself a victory. Israel has managed to dampen the support of the resistance for the population of Gaza.

But neither side has achieved any of its aims. Israel has failed to destroy Hizbullah. It has failed to capture any new land. Its settlers will still reject to return to the north. While the population in south Lebanon will return to its villages it will take several years for it to rebuild all the places that Israel has destroyed. The Big Book of Herbal... Sams, Tina Best Price: $23.99 Buy New $9.19 (as of 04:01 UTC - Details)

The original UNSCR 1701 had kept a semblance of peace between Lebanon and Israel since 2006. Its reinstatement is very unlikely to hold that long.

As the conflict in Lebanon subsides Israel and the U.S. have reignited the war in Syria. There have been signs for a while that this was going to happen. Yesterday Al-Qaeda affiliated HTS fighters, which has been rebuild and sponsored with CIA money, have relaunched their attacks on Syrian government forces west of Aleppo. Syrian and Russian air force attacks have for now stopped their progress. Hizbullah’s Rudwan forces have yet to intervene but are deployed to defend Aleppo.

I do not expect the situation to Syria to escalate further.

The Axis of Resistance had promised to support Gaza. The cessation of fire in Lebanon has for now blocked one way of doing so. It will have to activate new vectors of attacks to prevent Israel from finishing its genocide in Gaza.

Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.