Environmental problems have contributed to numerous collapses of civilizations in the past. Now, for the first time, a global collapse appears likely. Overpopulation, overconsumption by the rich and poor choices of technologies are major drivers; dramatic cultural change provides the main hope of averting calamity.
This article was created for educational purposes and also, its continuation can help you better understand a social collapse that can hit us at any time!
Could a worldwide collapse of civilization occur? What could bring about it?
A worldwide collapse of civilization could be triggered by what are called existential risks. Existential risks have been studied extensively by Swedish philosopher Nick Bostrom, who created the graphic above of qualitative existential risk categories. Bostrom now runs the Future of Humanity Institute at Oxford University, which specializes in the study of existential risks.
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Bostrom defines existential risks as a risk, “…that threatens the premature extinction of Earth-originating intelligent life or the permanent and drastic destruction of its potential for desirable future development…” A notch down from existential risks are global catastrophic risks. Bostrom has edited a collection of essays on Global Catastrophic Risks with Milan Ćirković. They define global catastrophic risks as, “…a risk that might have the potential to inflict serious damage to human well-being on a global scale…”
While I am sympathetic to the other answer to this question given by John Dewar Gleissner, which emphasizes the robustness of civilization and the unlikelihood of complete collapse not followed by recovery, I think it nevertheless a good idea to be fully aware of the existential risks that could bring an end to civilization, even if they are unlikely.
From the table above, with the x axis being severity and the y axis being scope, we can see, in principle, that any event of sufficient severity and scope can escalate into an existential risk. In practice, by contrast, what kinds of events might escalate into existential risks? Following is a list of existential risks, broken down accordingly whether they are anthropogenic (caused by human activity) or non-anthropogenic, as well as distinguishing between short term (within the coming century) and long term (beyond the coming century) risks:
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Near-term Anthropogenic Existential Risks (within the coming century)
- Anthropogenic Climate Change – while anthropogenic climate change may constitute a global catastrophic risk rather than an existential risk for human beings as a species, if the Ross Ice Shelf collapsed into the ocean all the coastal cities in the world would be inundated, posing an existential risk to the world’s largest cities, their ports, and therefore the global trading infrastructure, hence an existential risk to civilization itself.
- Unintended Consequences of Genetic Technology – GMOs (genetically modified organisms) loose in the biosphere, or weapons of biological warfare, could evolve into an unintended pandemic indistinguishable from a naturally-occurring pandemic. Alternatively, artificial forms of life could multiply out of control, covering the planet in a “green scum” scenario.
- Stagnation or Civilizational Failure – if industrial-technological civilization stagnates or culminates in a dysfunctional civilization (e.g., global tyranny), the technological innovations forthcoming from a dynamic civilization would cease, and civilization would cease to offer the opportunity to mitigate existential risks, failing to respond to them.
