International Man: You’ve often emphasized the importance of having a bolt-hole—a secure haven where someone can escape during times of crisis, danger, or upheaval.
Why do you think this is such an important topic?
Doug Casey: The US is on the ragged edge of something that will look like a civil war. The differences in basic worldviews between the Red and Blue people are irreconcilable. This will come to a head as the election results are tallied, and not accepted by the losing side. That will make the US a very unpleasant place to be. Let me emphasize that as big as the financial and economic risks are in the US, the biggest danger is politics and the political situation. This has been true in many countries over the last century.
Breaking Away: The Cas...
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Some examples? If you were a Russian in 1917 and you didn’t have a foreign bolt-hole, you were in trouble. If you were in Germany in 1933 and you didn’t have a foreign bolt-hole, you were in trouble. The same is true of China in the 1940s, Cuba in 1959, Vietnam in 1975, and Venezuela today.
Those are just prominent examples. There were many more upsets in smaller, lesser-known countries. Things went crazy in Bosnia in 1992, Rwanda in 1994, or for that matter, Gaza a year ago.
The world is starting to look like it did in the 1930s. We’re heading towards World War III. Securing your assets is important, but physical safety is critical.
International Man: What makes a location ideal for a bolt-hole, and what key factors should people consider?
Doug Casey: The culture is perhaps the number one consideration. Much more than the weather, the language, costs, or the state of the economy.
In the past, the US, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand were top choices because of their cultural stability and common law traditions. That’s changing now; all of them suffer from governments that are both bankrupt and quite aggressive towards their own citizens. Plus, they’re allied in what’s known as the Five Eyes, a veritable panopticon of spying, that makes them increasingly undesirable.
Ruling out the traditional bolt-holes, you’re left with about 200 other countries. What you want is a stable place with a low population density; even then you want to avoid major cities.
Most importantly, you want to be away from potential war zones. That pretty much rules out Europe. Its charming old buildings are delightful, but it’s likely to once again be on the front line of a World War. It seems as if the continent’s uniformly socialist political class is going for a “hat trick”; this time, they’ll succeed in destroying the birthland of Western Civilization.
You also want to rule out any place with potential race problems, which is to say, basically all of Africa—or religious problems, which rules out the Islamic world. Finding a bolt-hole is really a process of elimination.
International Man: Let’s discuss some of your favorite places to consider.
During World Wars I and II, South America was a safe haven for many Europeans, specifically the Southern Cone (Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Paraguay, and Southern Brazil).
Can you explain why you like this region?
Doug Casey: Unlike Australia and New Zealand—the other options in the Southern Hemisphere—these South American countries are unallied with Northern Hemisphere powers. In the coming unpleasantness, they’re likely to stay unallied and, therefore, not be targets of attack or invasion.
Very importantly, they’re part of Western Civilization. They don’t present a radical change for North Americans or Europeans except, perhaps, in language. But Spanish is the easiest language for English speakers to learn. Apart from that, most of the people in the upper economic sectors speak English, and it’s widely taught in schools.
I also like the fact that farming and ranching are big throughout the Southern Cone, which makes for a more stable society. Uruguay is a favorite because it’s small (3.4 million population), ethnically homogeneous, and notably unwarlike. I think it’s going to get many thousands of well-to-do European immigrants. As will Argentina, which may be the best shot because it’s being radically transformed under its new president, Javier Milei. In the next decade it should be one of the most prosperous countries in the world; put it very high on your list. Paraguay is a strange place in many ways, but a pleasant kind of strange. Southern Brazil is great. Chile is in an up-and-down situation.
I’ve written about all of them at length, so don’t go by just a couple of sentences here. Any of them are reasonable choices. They’re much better than the northern part of the continent or Central America. But, once again, it’s unfair to generalize so briefly.
International Man: You have mentioned that Thailand is also one of your favorite countries.
What are your thoughts on Thailand as a bolt-hole?
Doug Casey: Although I spend most of the year in Argentina and Uruguay, oddly enough, Thailand is my other choice. It’s odd because it’s at the antipodes, both geographically and culturally. One of Thailand’s advantages is that, unlike almost every other country in the world, it’s never been colonized.
They don’t have a residual resentment for foreigners of European extraction. It has great food, a great climate, and extremely low costs. They justifiably call themselves The Land of Smiles, and it’s quite a mellow place. South East Asia is progressing at a great pace. Everything works—unlike things in the declining West.
And if it’s important to you, the medical facilities are not only some of the best in the world but absolutely some of the lowest cost as well.
The only disadvantage to Thailand—if it’s a disadvantage—is that you’ll never be a Thai and never truly integrate into the society. That’s unlike South America, which is very open to immigrants.
International Man: Years ago, you used to live in New Zealand and once considered it a good bolt-hole.
What is your assessment today?
Doug Casey: New Zealand has always been the end of the road. Not much is close to it except for Australia. I really like New Zealand. It’s also farming country, with gigantic numbers of cattle and sheep, and only five million people.
It had a free-market revolution 25 years ago under Roger Douglas. Before that, anybody who was young or had any sense and the money to buy a ticket to London or Los Angeles, got out. Roger Douglas totally updated and reformed the economy. The currency doubled in value and the country boomed.
But as often happens with these places, once they experience prosperity, they feel they can coast and fall back to their old ways. Now their emigration problem has turned into a tidal wave of immigration, mostly from Pakistan and India.
On the bright side, their last prime minister, an unstable, dogmatic, Woke socialist named Jacinda Ardern, recently resigned. The current government is reasonable enough, I suppose, but the fact Kiwis elected the horrible woman tells you something. I like NZ and have lived there for years, but it has some cultural foibles.
It was one of the first socialist countries in the world, and that’s ingrained in the culture. They suffer from something called the Tall Poppy Syndrome, which is to say if you’re very successful and you stand out, you tend to be resented. There’s a local joke about how the British who colonized it were essentially serfs, unlike those who colonized Australia, who were notable as criminals.
In many ways, Australia is much more like the US and quite different from NZ. Practically all the animals in Australia are deadly, but in New Zealand, nothing’s likely to hurt you except a visiting Australian stock promoter. If I were to move back to New Zealand, I would probably choose the South Island—particularly the area around Queenstown, the Aspen of the Southern Hemisphere.
That area will continue to draw rich and sophisticated people. It’s not cheap and will likely become even more expensive. But, as I said earlier, having written a lot about these places, I hate to characterize them in a short paragraph or two.
International Man: Given everything we’ve discussed today, what is your advice on turning theory into practice? What are some practical tips on establishing a bolt-hole?
The Heritage of the South
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Doug Casey: First, it’s essential that you set aside some time, get on a plane, and visit the likely prospects. It won’t do to land there for the first time when a crisis hits, not knowing where to go, what to do, or who to talk to. You must check these places out in advance, like now.
Do it soon because I suspect more things like the great Covid hysteria are in the cards. That will make international travel harder and more expensive. As will foreign exchange controls, which are certainly on the way. They’ll make it inconvenient, expensive, and perhaps illegal to transfer money from your home country to your new bolt-hole.
If you’re going to do something, you should do it now. And I don’t mean next year. Think in terms of tomorrow morning. This election—regardless of who winds up being installed come January 6—augurs for big changes and lots of trouble.
Are there risks? You may recall the story about the man who saw WW2 coming. He moved to a tropical island in the middle of nowhere in the beautiful South Pacific. As it turned out, Guadalcanal wasn’t the best choice…
Reprinted with permission from International Man.
