The Democrats fear that they are losing support from non-white voters.

Polling data indeed shows that parts of the non-white voters are shifting away from the Democrats and towards the Republicans.

John Burn-Murdoch, chief data reporter for the Financial Times, has looked at the reasons why that is being the case.

John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch – 14:39 UTC · Mar 11, 2024

NEW :

American politics is in the midst of a racial realignment.

I think this is simultaneously one of the most important social trends in the US today, and one of the most poorly understood.

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Last week, an NYT poll showed Biden leading Trump by less than 10 points among non-white Americans, a group he won by almost 50 points in 2020. The END of WORRY: A Cl... Bierman MD, Steve Best Price: $9.29 Buy New $14.77 (as of 11:27 UTC - Details)

Averaging all recent polls, the Democrats are losing more ground with non-white voters than any other demographic.

A further investigation of this trend finds that there are three factors involved in this.

The first, according to Burn-Murdoch, is memory. The civil rights movement in the 1960s aligned lots of non-whites with the Democrats. But since that movement was at least somewhat successful younger non-white people are no longer bound by that.

Typically people become more conservative with age. Black Americans so far defied that trend. But as those who lived during the civil rights movement are dying away the effect dissipates.

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Another factor is that the Democrats have become a party of (many) rich people while the Republicans, at least in their rhetoric, have become more labor orientated.

Black Americans are economically on the poorer side of things. They may see more potential gain for themselves by voting Republican.

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The third factor though, seems to be the strongest one. There were once a lot of conservative non-whites who still voted for Democrats. That is changing. More people are now aligning their choice with their ideology.

This may be because the society has become less segregated. Group pressure, for blacks to vote for Democrats, has thus dissipated. People have become more free to vote their mind. This allows natural conservatives, of all colors, to increasingly vote along their personal ideology.

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Shooter’s Bible ... Sadowski, Robert A. Best Price: $12.00 Buy New $15.76 (as of 09:12 UTC - Details) John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch – 14:42 UTC · Mar 11, 2024

[I]f you take one thing away from this thread:

The left’s challenge with non-white voters is much deeper than it first appears.

A less racially divided America is an America where people vote more based on their beliefs than their identity. This is a big challenge for Dems.

It is an especially big challenge when one’s presidential candidate is one Joe Biden who has long thrived on black votes and a (fake) image of pro-worker policies.

The observed trend strengthens my assessment that Donald Trump is highly likely to win the next presidential election.

—The longer version of the above discussion, with more graphics, has been published in the Financial Times:

American politics is undergoing a racial realignment – (archived) – FT, Mar 11 2024
Democrats are rapidly losing non-white voters as the forces that ensured their support weaken

Reprinted with permission from Moon of Alabama.

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