Trump increased spending temporarily by 13% of GDP and permanently by at least 1%. DeSantis decreased spending by at least 0.8%. This choice is easy.
Data: usgovernmentspending.com: national-only, total national, state, and local
Seven tag teams successively raised the floor for total spending
Governments in the USA have in large part been grown by tag teams.
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In the 1800s, Thomas Jefferson’s embargo, which broadened into James Madison’s War of 1812, ratcheted total government spending up from the American colonies’ 1–2% of GDP to a new floor of 3.1%. James Buchanan’s promotion of union, which broadened into Abraham Lincoln’s Civil War, ratcheted spending up to 5.3%.
In the 1900s, William Taft’s Progressive centralization, which broadened into Woodrow Wilson’s Great War, ratcheted spending up to 11%. Herbert Hoover’s initiation and Franklin Roosevelt’s followthrough of Progressive interference with recovery, and the resulting failure to prevent World War II, ratcheted spending up to 18%. A series of Progressive presidents and major wars, capped off by Richard Nixon’s, Gerald Ford’s, and Jimmy Carter’s Great Inflation I and wage and price controls, ratcheted spending up to 32%.
In the 2000s, George Bush’s initiation of financial-crisis spending and Barack Obama’s followthrough ratcheted spending up to 35%. Donald Trump’s initiation of Great Inflation II spending and Joe Biden’s followthrough ratcheted spending up to 36%. And we’re still early in Great Inflation II and in the increasingly-likely Great Depression II.
Out of all income earned on labor, the national government takes a freedom-suffocating 36%, and state and local governments take another whole 36%. We serfs are far more productive now, so we suffer less deprivation, but even so, we’re already nearly 3/4 of the way down the road to full socialism.
Tag teams double down
Whenever we’ve gotten tag-teamed, we’ve gotten stuck with the same bigger-government actions no matter which candidate has won. This includes when we’ve gotten tag-teamed by Trump-Biden.
Under Trump, spending skyrocketed to an all-time high of 48% of GDP. Under Biden, spending then briefly settled back, but only down to 36%. That means that overall, Trump-Biden has already ratcheted up spending by at least another 1%.
Trump expresses no regrets over covid lockdowns and spending, and expresses great pride over novel genetic therapies that from the start have been deadly and debilitating. Well before those defining actions, Trump already had saved Obamacare. He had continued massive legal and illegal immigration that favors people who vote for bigger governments. He had ratcheted up racially-calculating jailbreak of violent criminals that he favored because of a political calculation that was racially motivated. Capping it all off, for years, Trump has endorsed both incumbents and contenders for open seats who are Republican Progressives, ratcheting into place “the swamp.”
Never in history has a former officeholder who expanded governments then turned around and shrunk governments.
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Genuine leaders turn around
Every officeholder has had to contend with people who push for bloated government. Cronyism—the mercantilism that Alexander Hamilton labored to bring about, using all possible cunning—is nothing new.
Early Democrat Andrew Jackson turned around and instead shrunk government, paying off the national debt. Martin Van Buren responded to a Great Depression-sized crisis by letting prices and wages fall, allowing people to keep working and producing. Warren Harding responded to Great War debt by drastically shrinking government, which let productivity leap up through the Roaring Twenties and continue rising across the Great Depression. Ronald Reagan responded to Great Inflation I by holding firm politically while Paul Volcker slowed down the money creation.
Under Ron DeSantis in the 3 years reported so far, Florida state-government spending as a fraction of Florida GDP was barely increased from 7.9% to 8.0%, and then was sizably decreased to 7.1%.
DeSantis responded to Trump’s covid disruptions by locking down late and then lifting lockdowns early. DeSantis responded to Trump’s support for novel genetic therapies by making these available, then banned mandates, and finally—like no one else—impaneled a grand jury to investigate covid vaccine wrongdoing. On immigration, DeSantis signed the USA’s strongest illegal immigration legislation. On criminal justice, DeSantis signed stronger pre-trial detention legislation. Politically, in four years DeSantis transformed the Republican margin of victory in Florida from 0.4% to 19.9%.
Heading into 2024, polls now systemically favor Democrat “surprises.” In elections in 2022, Republican candidates for senate underperformed polls by margins of 1.5% to 11.5%—overperforming only in Florida, by 7.6%. Republican candidates for governor underperformed polls by 1.3% to 9.6%—overperforming only in Florida, by 7.2%. In elections in 2023, Republicans underperformed Trump’s 2020 margins, on average, by 7%. Polls have become psyops that have proven effective for electing the most-Progressive candidates, except on ballots that feature DeSantis.
The polls that count: caucuses and primaries
For 2024, unlike most times, this time voters can make a choice that will make a huge difference.
In the Republican caucuses and primaries, don’t vote to add 4 more years of Trump-Biden tyranny. Vote to begin 8 years of DeSantis freedom.
