11 years ago Xi became the boss of China. He was not interested in war; rather he just wanted to do business and that meant hard work, communication, trade, and capital. But Xi foresaw US belligerence.The Americans wanted war, an amusement at which they have repeatedly failed, but they did have nuclear subs that could obstruct the Malacca straits, or even blockade Chinese ports. He needed alternate routes to the Mideast and beyond for oil and raw material, and to Europe to deliver the products of his factories. In the event of US hostility, America was no longer a market.
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His solution was the “Belt and Road Iniative” (BRI) turning the Asian continent itself into a kind of substitute for Pacific oceanic shipping. Three avenues seemed viable. The original silk road went west over central Asia traversing lands occupied by herdsmen and often traversing harsh environments. The second sloped south, to the Indian Ocean and envisioned ports in Pakistan and Iran. The third gambled on the forecast global warming to make the Arctic Ocean navigable. Agreements with various Asian countries were entered into, work was started, railroads, communication cables, bridges, roads, and pipelines were built. Russia designed and built specialized Icebreakers to open the northern oceanic route to allow access for hoped for developed Russian commercial enterprises in the far north. Otherwise China and Russia drifted along in their own orbits. The Russians worried vaguely about Chinese designs on Siberia. The Chinese privately referred to caucasians as “big noses.”
Then the American Rand Corporation, NSA and Ivy League geniuses erupted with sanctions on Russia, war in Ukraine, badmouthing Russia, the whole Biden craziness. Russia, smarting, reacted and has so far overcame the insults.
Russia had for centuries been oriented toward trade and cultural ties with “the west,” through St. Petersburg and the Black Sea. Study the canal system in Russia. The Volga arborization connects to the White Sea in the Arctic, to the Baltic at St. Petersburg and to the Caspian at its southern end. There is a canal to the Don which allows easy passage to the Black Sea through the Sea of Azov and thence to the Mediterranean and the Danube. Russia has considered itself European since the times of the greats, Peter and Catherine. Biden’s fiasco has made trade with the west difficult and it might have been grim but China had a huge appetite for Russian food, oil, gas, mining products, military goods and technology. It promised to be a more substantial and reliable customer and Putin bought in unreservedly. The BRI to transport the goods is in the process of being built or already in place.
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But look more closely. The Caspian extends a long way across central Asia and must be part of any transportation system. The direct route of the Silk Road to China passes through Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, all former members of the USSR. The leaders and military leaders all trained in Russian if not in Russia (were any classmates of Putin?) The laws and courts are all modelled on the Soviet/Russian model. Millions of young men go to Russia to work menial jobs and send remittances back home. The lingua franca is Russian.
The southern routes that Xi envisioned in Pakistan and Afghanistan go through fractious Pashtun lands, but next door in Iran the Persian Corridor from the Indian Ocean to the Caspian is an old story. It was used during WWII to ferry about 45% of the US and British lend lease to the USSR. It is being upgraded. Iran and Russia are linked by military common interests.
The Arctic Ocean route is opened and parallels northern Russia.
Putin, I suppose unexpectedly, finds that he loves China. He is using the BRI already built and financed by Xi. The general consensus is that China is the more important and wealthy partner.
Maybe, or maybe not.
For centuries bound feet were some sort of bizarre self imposed disability of Chinese women. It limited mobility. They had to be carried to dinner, to bed and to the toilet. Xi, in placing his secondary vent to the outer world may have traded his worries about Americans blocking his trade routes, for passages that traverse the backyard of a poorer neighbor. Hopefully he will not need to regret binding his feet.
