My local gun dealer’s website has a huge banner in the middle of the homepage that
says, LIMITED INVENTORY—CALL AHEAD. So, a few weeks ago, that’s what I did.
“Hey,” I said, “Do you guys have any Remington 870s?”
“Nope.”
“How about a Ruger SP101?”
“Nope.”
“Smith and Wesson M&P?”
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He just laughed.
Back in March, fear that COVID-19 would bring down the American economy drove firearms sales through the roof. Our citizens (quite sensibly) wanted to be sure that, should the United States devolve into a Mad Max-style warlord state, we could defend our canned beans and toilet paper—with lethal force, if necessary. Riots following the death of George Floyd in May further drained the supply of pistols and rifles commonly used for self-defense.
Now, the 2020 election is just one week away, and most polls are predicting a comfortable Biden victory. The former vice president has promised to confiscate “assault weapons,” which is a scary-sounding name Democrats give to automatic and semiautomatic guns. That includes every rifle that fires more quickly than a blunderbuss and every pistol more advanced than a flintlock. Since most Americans don’t fancy the idea of defending their homes with muskets, stockpiling continues to intensify.
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One would assume that industry giants are on cloud nine, but not everyone is pleased. Soaring demand has created an incredibly unstable market, and gun-makers have no idea how to respond. A similar boom in demand during the 2016 cycle led to an immediate bust after Election Day. Then, too, conservatives feared a President Hillary Clinton would enact new restrictions on firearm ownership. Those industry giants hired a wash of new workers to meet demand but, when Donald Trump (rather unexpectedly) won the day, those companies were forced affect major layoffs as their stock values dropped precipitously.
So, maybe it’s not surprising that Winchester and Glock are wary of ramping up production. Yet this shortage has been worsening for the better part of a year, and most pollsters predict a blowout for the Democrats. If the Blue Wave does hit on November 3rd, gun sales are only likely to increase. So, does Sig Saur know something we don’t? Is there some internal poll circulating the offices of Big Gun that shows the President winning handily?
***
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Alas, probably not. Alan Rice, a spokesman for Gun Owners of America, tells me that firearms sales have surged before every election dating back to at least 1988. True: the bump in 2016 election was extraordinary, even by election-year standards. Yet demand for guns has been growing steadily over past decades, and manufacturers were already struggling to keep up their supply in 2019.
I also spoke about the deficit with Mark Olivia, public affairs director for the National Shooting Sports Foundation, the largest trade associations for firearms manufacturers in the country. “They’re working hard to keep up with this demand,” Mr. Olivia assures us. “They’re adding third shifts. And you need lead time to order raw materials. Even if we returned to pre-COVID demand tomorrow, it would take six months to back stock inventory.” Mr. Rice agrees. “I’ve been told that manufacturers are running at capacity, but raw materials are becoming difficult to source.”
As it happens, some friends and I were out hunting last weekend when we drove past the Ruger factory in Newport, New Hampshire. I counted six huge banners along the road that said, “We’re hiring!” According to Glassdoor, that factory pays between $45,000 and $75,000 per annum. The Ruger website also lists competitive benefits, including life insurance and prescription drug coverage. That’s nothing to spit at, especially here in the Granite State. Like virtually every company in America, they’re probably having difficulty finding workers who are willing to show up on time and work hard.
