The story goes that when Julius Caesar crossed the Rubicon river with his legions and headed into Rome – something forbidden by the Republic – it signaled the end of the Roman Republic. A similar event has just occurred that heralds the end of the internal combustion-engined car.
Not because a lower-cost, more efficient and more practical alternative has been found – as happened when the Model T replaced the horse and buggy, without any bayonets shoved into the backsides of horse-and-buggy owners.
But because a higher-cost, less efficient and much-less-practical alternative has been found that requires bayonets shoved into backsides, for precisely those reasons.
Boris Johnson – the Caesar of Great Britain – has decreed that as of 2035 no one will be allowed to buy a new car that is not an electric car. Not even partially electric hybrid cars will be allowed.
Only electric cars.
Less than 15 years from now.
Car manufacturers – especially European-based brands such as Mercedes, BMW, VW/Audi/Porsche, Peugot (which just merged with Fiat – which owns the American brands Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep and Ram) and, of course, Jaguar/Land Rover – have been put on notice that there’s no future – not long from now – for other than electric cars.
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And will therefore cease devoting resources toward the development of new cars that are not electric.
They’d be stupid to do otherwise.
The effect of this proscription – a Roman word whose original meaning is most apt in this context – will be felt much sooner than most people outside the car business may realize.
Far sooner than 15 years from now.
It takes years to conceive, develop, test and generally get a new car ready for the market. It takes years – often decades – to recover the costs of development including the tooling and so on necessary to manufacture it, build up spare parts inventory, train dealer service people – etc.
This is called the product cycle.
And less-than-15-years is too brief a cycle to spend much time – or money – developing new products that won’t be legal for sale by the time they are ready to be sold.
And so they won’t be developed.
Stagnation will ensue. Existing models that aren’t electric will receive a few updates here and there but it is unlikely many new models that aren’t electric will be released. Existing stock will be depleted – and not replaced.
