The world financial system has been in a euphoric state since 2009. It seems that the Keynesians, like Krugman or the Modern Money Theorists (MMT) are right after all. All asset markets are near the highs and show little sign of changing direction. As Treasury Secretary Mellon said in September 1929: “There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue.” All that is required is more of the same medicine, more credit, more money printing to make a virtuous circle of eternal prosperity.
Clearly the Cassandras are all wrong with their pessimistic forecasts that never happen. The Greek Princess had the ability to forecast the future but her curse was that nobody believed her accurate predictions. (Cassandra article)
We modern Cassandras are in the same position. We are certain that the theories based on spending and borrowing yourself out of the biggest debt bubble in history are totally fallacious. We know that a debt problem cannot be solved by more debt. No one defined it more succinctly than Albert Einstein: “We cannot solve our problems with the same level of thinking that created them.”
THE PARTY IS OVER
But sadly for the world, Cassandra will be right this time also since the party is over. The Time Bomb below says it all. Contained in the red bomb are all the explosive elements that will change the history of the world. Any single one of these risks is sufficient to trigger a collapse of the world economy. The combined explosive nature of all the risks will not only disprove MMT but create a world which will be a lot less pleasant to live in.
This cleansing of a sick financial system and a morally decadent world will be totally necessary to create new green shoots based on real, sustainable values. But the transition will create great suffering for the whole world.
THE WORLD NEEDS STATESMEN
In the final stages of a major super cycle, there is normally a total lack of clarity in the thinking of world leaders. But not only that, there is also a total lack of leadership. Right now this is exactly what we have. Countries normally get the leaders they deserve. The world is in desperate need of statesmen who can take uncomfortable decisions to get the world out of the mess it is in. But looking around the world, there is no statesman in any country. There are countries with strong leaders like Putin in Russia and Orban in Hungary but real statesmanship does not exist anywhere.
Look at France where Macron becomes more unpopular by the day. Soon every Frenchman will wear a yellow vest and it is already spreading to other countries. The French economy and financial system are weakening and the inequality between the rich and the poor has the seeds of yet another French Revolution.
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Germany has been the biggest beneficiary of a weak Euro but in spite of that, the German economy is now deteriorating rapidly. Merkel’s socialist policies will have disastrous effects on the German economy in coming years, exacerbated by an immigration policy which will create a major economic and social disaster.
When Deutsche Bank (DB) collapses, which is probable, that will have repercussions not only for German banks but for the global banking system. DB’s derivative book of EUR 50 trillion is 15x German GDP. When counterparty fails, the Bundesbank and the ECB will need to print more Euros than during the hyperinflationary Weimar Republic. In addition, the Bundesbank and the German financial system are the biggest guarantors of the ECB and the Target2 lending to Southern European countries which are all likely to default on their commitments.
The UK leadership is extremely weak. Theresa May’s government is irresolute and divisive. They have spent 2 years solely trying to extricate itself from the EU. This issue has totally dominated UK politics at the expense of the economy. With 2 weeks left to Brexit-day, the UK is nowhere nearer an agreement with the Brussels elite who have consistently frustrated the process.
The US is bankrupt with a currency which is living on borrowed time. Trump had good intentions but has been shackled by the Deep State. When the biggest economy in the world collapses, it will have major repercussions on the world.
Every major country or continent in the world has got problems of a magnitude that will bring the country down. In addition to the above nations, this includes Japan, China, South America and many more.
