...this
alarmism over inflation on the part of consumers is nothing new,
and it may not be warranted. Weve given a lot of grief
to professional forecasters, who never seem to know when a recession
is about to begin or end. But when it comes to projecting inflation,
the amateurs dont do very well, either.
there are
a host of individuals and companies who benefit from freaking
people out about inflation i.e. gold bugs, bond vigilantes,
politicians who believe that the Fed, simply by printing more
money, creates inflation.
Given that
people seem to be incorporating higher inflation into their mindsets,
perhaps policymakers should consider indulging them.
Last time we
checked, inflation occurs when those responsible for issuing the
currency, be it a Roman emperor who controlled the content of precious
metals in coinage or a central bank that controls the money supply,
is solely responsible for the resulting price inflation.
How else, save
trillions of dollars in quantitative easing, can we explain the
exorbitant price increases in commodities like food and gas over
the last forty years? Yes, Mr. Gross, the Fed, simply by printing
more money, does, in fact, create inflation. A third grader can
understand this basic concept, that when you artificially create
something, its value goes down.
The reason
people seem to be incorporating higher inflation into
their mindsets is because policymakers have already indulged them.
Isnt this exactly the current policy of the Fed?
Mr. Gross suggests
that consumers are disconnected from reality because they are, on
a personal level, expecting inflation of around 5.8% over the coming
12 months based on a recent survey. Clearly, Mr. Gross is himself
disconnected from reality, because those consumers are already experiencing
yearly price increases as of right now of over 11%
almost double what they are expecting for the coming year, and triple
what the official CPI has reported.
The real
data suggest everything the Federal Reserve is reporting, and
mouthpieces like Mr. Gross are parroting, is nothing short of deceptive.
Well known
economist and contrarian statistician John Williams, who incidentally
is not an amateur, provides a concise explanation for how youre
losing purchasing power to inflation everyday.
Williams says,
for example, that Social Security cost of living adjustments,
if the government had utilized real data, should be double what
they are today. Of course, that is simply not economically feasible
for a government run retirement system that is a few years from
collapsing using even manipulated data.
In an interview
with Goldseek Radio, John
Williams, proprietor of the popular alternative statistics web site
Shadow Stats, provides
those with the desire to understand the real numbers a concise explanation
of how the government calculates their statistics, why the need
for manipulation, and what the real data are actually saying:
You have
to be careful when you are talking about inflation and deflation
that you define what youre talking about. When I talk about
inflation Im talking about the change in prices for goods
and services consumed by the consumer. Im not talking about
asset inflation or deflation. When Im arguing that we have
higher consumer inflation, thats again for goods and services.
Its not for assets and such. I can see a deflation in assets
Id have no problem, conceptually, with a stock market
crash. In fact, I think were probably seeing something akin
to that now in slow motion over the last couple of weeks.
Our policymakers,
utilizing all sorts of adjustments and machinations, are doing everything
in their power to control the perceptions of the general population.
If they were to come out and tell us the truth about whats
really happening to our currency you can fully expect panic buying
of precious metals and hard assets would ensue. As weve pointed
out many times before, the powers that be do not want anyone but
themselves holding gold and silver assets, because then you are
not beholden to their system of debt.
Make no mistake,
the US Dollar is in serious trouble, but so long as people, those
like the aforementioned Mr. Daniel Gross, have faith in what theyre
being told by the Fed, the US government and the mainstream media,
that the inflation rate is under control at 3%, there is still calm.
When the reality
of what has happened becomes obvious, however, the people will go
ballistic. And according to Mr. Williams, that time is coming sooner
rather than later:
Im
not a day to day timer here, but I can tell you long-term that
we have a catastrophe ahead for the US dollar. It will eventually
become worthless in a hyperinflation, which I have written
about its the time of thing that will break in the not to
distant future. It could be another couple of years, but its
coming. So, looking at the long haul you dont want to
be in the US dollar. Gold is a primary hedge against that, as
is silver.
The U.S.
economic and systemic solvency crises of the last two years are
just precursors to a Great Collapse: a hyperinflationary great
depression. Such will reflect a complete collapse in the purchasing
power of the U.S. dollar, a collapse in the normal stream of U.S.
commercial and economic activity, a collapse in the U.S. financial
system as we know it, and a likely realignment of the U.S. political
environment. The current U.S. financial markets, financial
system and economy remain highly unstable and vulnerable to unexpected
shocks. The Federal Reserve is dedicated to preventing deflation,
to debasing the U.S. dollar.
~ John
Williams December 2009
The evidence
is absolutely clear. The catastrophe cannot be stopped. The implications
are life changing.