Paul Upsets Santorum in Missouri Caucuses Buoyed By Huge Youth Turnout
outcome of Missouris lengthy caucus process may not be known
for months. Early results, however, indicate that Ron Paul may well
walk away from the state with the most delegates. Yesterday, his
the largest pooled caucus Jackson county, responsible for
sending 179 delegates to the state and congressional district conventions
winning over two-thirds of the available delegate slots.
Mr. Paul also swept St. Louis, winning all of the citys 36
second and third largest caucuses, which convened last Saturday,
reported similar results. In Greene county (111 delegates), Paul
backers won nearly 60% of the delegate slots. In St. Charles (147
delegates), they so thoroughly dominated
that the county GOP chair, allegedly a Santorum supporter, adjourned
the meeting and called in the police to prevent the election from
In each of
these counties, Paul supporters were outnumbered by Santorum supporters
by at least 4-to-1*. Against these daunting odds,
the Ron Paulers emerged victorious due to their unmatched grassroots
organization and their ability to turn out the youth vote. In Greene
county, party insiders said they had never seen so many young
people at a Republican caucus.
results a shot in the arm for the Paul campaign have
led many observers to conclude that Mr. Pauls caucus strategy
is working better than they had anticipated. His strong performance
follows several events in recent weeks that suggest that Ron Paul
supporters energized by the message of limited government
and fiscal conservatism are quickly taking over the leadership
of the Republican party at the state and local levels across the
month, in Las Vegas, Paul supporters were elected to two-thirds
of the board positions in the Clark County Republican Party after
more county convention delegates than any other candidate at the
caucuses including Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, in Iowa, the state
co-chair of the Paul campaign was elected
as the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party in February. Last week,
Paul supporters swept
all the delegate slots in two of Seattles largest legislative
belie the mainstream medias efforts to marginalize Ron Pauls
candidacy. The Associated Presss projections, for example,
report the Texas congressman as being last in the delegate count.
Election analysts, however, insist that those projections are driven
by a failure to understand the rules governing delegate allocation
in caucus states. Josh Putnam, election expert and professor of
political science, agrees. The AP delegate count, he admits,
is based on a fantasy proportional allocation of delegates
in the non-binding caucus states.
the Missouri caucuses, the New York Times reported that Rick
Santorum was "frantically
wooing voters" in an attempt to secure a "second victory."
Since then, the Times' caucus blog has maintained complete
about Ron Paul's unexpectedly strong performance in the state.
With his likely
victory in Missouri, Mr. Paul has shown once again that his campaign
fueled by the passion and determination of millions of grassroots
supporters across the country should not be written off too
quickly. He has more than doubled
his voter base since 2008, intends to compete
aggressively in Texas and California, and continues to upend the
establishment narrative at every turn. Regardless of who wins the
Republican nomination, all available evidence suggests that the
Ron Paul movement will continue to be a significant force in American
politics for decades to come.
Feb. 7 primary meaningless, since it awarded zero delegates
- the ratio of Santorum votes to Paul votes was 3.8 in Jackson county,
4.3 in St. Charles county, and 4.5 in Greene county. Ron Paul won
the majority of the county-level delegates in Jackson and Greene
counties, and is expected to do the same in St. Charles when it
holds its rescheduled caucus on April 10.
with the author's permission.
Azhar is a New York-based writer and statistician. His commentary,
which has been featured in the Huffington
Post and the
engages critical issues involving foreign policy, civil liberties,
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