PARIS
– The US keeps kicking hornet’s nests around the globe and wondering
why it continues getting stung.
The latest
example: Pakistan’s once beautiful Swat Valley has been turned
into a battlefield. Last week, Pakistan finally bowed to Washington’s
angry demands to unleash its military against rebellious Pashtun
tribesmen of Northwest Frontier Province (NWFP) – who are collectively
mislabeled "Taliban" in the west. They are not the
Afghan Taliban, but it’s convenient for the western media and
Pentagon to slap that label on them.
The Obama
administration had threatened to stop $1.2 billion annual cash
payments to bankrupt Pakistan’s political and military leadership,
and block $5.5 billion future aid, unless Islamabad sent its
soldiers into Pakistan’s turbulent NWFP along the Afghan frontier
and crushed attempts to reestablish Islamic Law and autonomy.
Many people in the region want Islamic law because in utterly
corrupt Pakistan it represents the only honest and swift judicial
system. The only other "law" available has to be bought.
Pakistan’s
army and air force claimed to have killed 1,000 "terrorists"
(read: mostly civilians) and almost emptied the valley of its
inhabitants. UN sources now say the operation has created close
to 2 million refugees.
Pakistan’s
armed forces, who are being paid by the US to fight Pashtun
tribes, have scored a brilliant victory against their own people.
Too bad Pakistan’s military does not manage to do as well in
wars against India. Blasting civilians at home, however, is
much safer and more profitable.
Unable
to pacify Afghanistan’s Pashtun tribes (again, lumped together
as "Taliban"), a deeply frustrated Washington has
begun tearing Pakistan apart in an effort to end Pashtun resistance
in both nations. CIA drone aircraft have so far killed over
700 Pakistani Pashtun. Only 6% were militants, according to
Pakistan’s media, the rest civilians.
Pashtun,
also improperly called Pathan, are the world’s largest tribal
people. Fifteen million live in Afghanistan, forming half its
population. Twenty-six million live right across the border
in Pakistan.
Up to three
million Afghan Pashtun are refugees in Pakistan.
True to
their strategy of divide and rule, Britain’s imperialists split
the Pashtun by an artificial border, the Durand Line (which
became today’s Afghan-Pak border). Pashtun reject this artificial
border.
Many Pashtun
tribes agreed to join Pakistan in 1947 provided much of their
homeland remain autonomous and free of government troops. Pashtun
Swat, where Islamic Sharia law was in force, only joined Pakistan
in 1969 after assurances of autonomy and religious freedom.
As Pakistan’s
Pashtun increasingly aided Pashtun resistance in Afghanistan,
US "Predator" drones began attacking them. Washington
forced Islamabad to violate its own constitution by sending
troops into Pashtun lands. The result was the current explosion
of Pashtun anger.
I have
been to war with Pashtun and have seen their legendary courage,
strong sense of honor, and determination. They are also hugely
quarrelsome, feuding, prickly, and notorious for seeking revenge.
One learns
never threaten a Pashtun or give him ultimatums. These mountain
warriors defied the US by refusing to hand over Osama bin Laden
because he was a hero of the anti-Soviet war and their guest.
Doing would have violated their ancient code of "Pashtunwali"
that still guides them.
Now, Washington’s
ham-handed policies and last week’s Swat atrocity threaten to
ignite Pakistan’s second worst nightmare after invasion by India:
that its 26 million Pashtun will secede and join Afghanistan’s
Pashtun to form an independent Pashtun state, Pashtunistan.
This would
rend Pakistan asunder, probably provoke its restive Baluchi
tribes to secede, and might tempt mighty India to intervene
military, risking nuclear war with beleaguered Pakistan.
The Pashtun
of Northwest Frontier have no intention or capability of moving
into Pakistan’s other provinces, Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan.
They just want to be left alone. Alarms of a "Taliban takeover
of Pakistan" are driven by ignorance or propaganda.
Lowland
Pakistanis have repeatedly rejected militant Islamic parties.
Many have little love for Pashtun, whom they regard as mountain
rustics best avoided. Pakistan’s Islamist parties have traditionally
won less than 10% of the national vote.
Nor
are Pakistan’s well-guarded nuclear weapons a danger – at least
not yet. Alarms about Pakistan’s nukes come from neoconservative
fabricators worried about Israel.
The real
danger is in the US acting like an enraged mastodon, trampling
Pakistan under foot, and forcing Islamabad’s military to make
war on its own people. Pakistan could end up like US-occupied
Iraq, split into three parts and helpless.
If this
continues, at some point nationalistic Pakistani soldiers may
rebel against the corrupt generals and politicians on Washington’s
payroll.
Equally
ominous, a poor people’s uprising spreading across Pakistan
– also mislabeled "Taliban" – threatens a radical
national rebellion similar to India’s spreading Maoist Naxalite
rebellion.
As in Iraq,
ignorance and military arrogance continue to drive US Afghan
policy. Obama’s people have no more understanding what they
are getting into in "Afpak" than did the Bush administration.
They will learn the hard way.