Celente Adjusts Presidential Election Forecast

Previously by Gerald Celente: Government Killed the American Dream

One year ago, on 3 October 2011, I forecast that President Obama would defeat any of the Republican front-runners competing for the nomination, Mitt Romney among them.

That forecast was not based on perceived or substantive differences between the Republican challengers and the President, nor was it made to further an agenda. My forecasts are based on data, facts and analysis, not on wishful thinking, wants or needs.

I’m an avowed political atheist: I don’t believe in political religions nor do I bow to political gods. And I will not participate in their ritual by voting for what I (and millions of other Americans) regard as a choice between the lesser of two evils.

I do, however, believe in God and believe He would judge it a sin if I cast my vote for "evil" – be it the lesser or the greater.

When I forecast an Obama win in 2011, it wasn’t because of his policies, principles or performance in office, but because of his performance on stage. And until he bombed in Denver at last week’s TV debate, Barack "Mr. Cool" Obama had shown himself to be far a more accomplished song-and-dance man than Mitt "Stuffed Shirt" Romney.

And that’s all it is, one big show: The Presidential Reality Show. One year ago we wrote:

The Presidential Reality Show

"Reflecting back on the debates between Republican candidates," Celente says, "This isn’t politics as an exercise in Democracy in action, it’s politics as show business for ugly people."

"Anyone who saw the September 12th debate hosted by CNN witnessed an early episode of The Presidential Reality Show. It was a star-spangled, made-for-TV-spectacle appropriating the lowest common denominator elements of the World Wrestling Federation, the Miss America Pageant and American Idol.

"Given that this is what is passed off as political ‘debate’ in America, come Election Day, the American Idol winner (a.k.a. The President of the United States) will be the best performer. And Barack Obama has proven that he can out-perform and out-teleprompt them all – he will tell the teleprompted truth the audience wants to hear.

And on a stage where performance counts more than the heart, fans (a.k.a. the electorate) will vote for the Best Actor. That actor will be the man who commands the stage, Barack Obama." (Trend Alert, Celente Picks 2012 Presidential Winner, 3 October 2011)

Indeed, the Obama/Romney debate was an insult to anyone with a shred of intelligence. But Obama’s unexpectedly comatose performance served to negate – at least temporarily – the showbiz advantage that otherwise would have led him to victory.

Which contestant will win The Presidential Reality Show and lead America for the next four years?

Can Obama regain his "cool" and find his rhythm? What will Romney do for an encore? Will there be an October, or even a November surprise?

You’ll find the answers and our forecasts in the just-released Autumn Trends Journal.

October 19, 2012

Gerald Celente is founder and director of The Trends Research Institute, author of Trends 2000 and Trend Tracking (Warner Books), and publisher of The Trends Journal. He has been forecasting trends since 1980, and recently called “The Collapse of ’09.”

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