Casey on Africa
by Louis James, Editor, International
by Doug Casey:
Obama and the 2012 Election
Lobo, you were in Africa the Congo last time we talked.
How did that go?
saw a lot of changes from my previous visit to the DRC in 2006.
That brings up an interesting question, as we do invest in companies
working in several African countries, and you've described the continent
as "a perpetual basket case." What's your take on Africa
today? Is it doomed to remain the heart of darkness, or could things
be looking up at a last?
The reference here is to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC),
not the Republic of the Congo (ROC).]
I think it's very much an open question at this point, as to whether
Africa has a dim or bright future. It's all about management, not
resources. Africa has always had plenty of resources, but the worst
management possible. Resources are actually a liability for most
places. The classic examples of places not needing natural resources
for success are Japan and Hong Kong. They have essentially zero
natural resources, but became immensely prosperous because they
had good property rights and predictable laws. On the other hand,
you've got countries like Venezuela and Nigeria that have been blessed
or cursed, as the case may be with great mineral wealth,
but are absolute basket cases. And they'll stay that way until the
governing philosophy changes.
a society is totally a "people" thing management.
Without social systems that encourage prosperity which is
to say, encourage personal freedom natural resources are
counterproductive. They just become something for the strongest
thugs to steal. Since the mineral rights in Africa all belong to
the state, the best way to steal the diamonds, gold, oil, or whatever,
is to get control of the government. Governments are obstacles to
prosperity almost everywhere, but in Africa they are totally counterproductive.
They're exclusively vehicles for theft and repression.
the continent, every regime and I can't think of a single
exception became a hellhole after the colonial powers left.
They exported nothing but minerals the farms and plantations
all went back to the bush and imported nothing but crazy
ideas and luxury goods for the rulers, mostly from Europe. Then,
to compensate, Western governments have shoveled a trillion dollars
of "aid" into the continent over the last 50 years. That
was all money stolen from poor people in rich countries that ended
up lining the pockets of rich people in poor countries. It cemented
the poor Africans to the bottom of the barrel. Crucifixion is too
good for people who promote foreign aid.
almost all of Africa's disastrous problems to colonialism. If Europeans
came there as traders, it would have been beneficial to everyone.
But they came as conquerors, destroyed the existing native cultures,
engaged in horrendous wholesale slaughters the Congo being
perhaps the worst example and imposed alien religions and
political systems on the natives. My friend George Ayittey details
this in his
11-year-old daughter is somehow aware of this when I came
back this time, she told me she was deeply offended by the rulers
and other rich thieves in African countries who redirect foreign
aid to their bank accounts in Switzerland, while the people it's
intended to help starve. But it occurs to me that what you said
about the mineral rights is true of Latin America and other places
as well; if you want to mine, you don't go to the people living
on the land, you go to the government to buy or rent the right to
Yes. The only exception I know of is the US, where if you own the
surface rights to a piece of land, you own the subsurface rights
as well, including mineral rights. It's only if someone wants to
mine on government land that they need to file claims and deal with
the government. This is one reason why the US was the world's most
prosperous and least corrupt country in the past. Private property
rights like this served as one limit to the size and importance
of the state.
And as a "people system," the ability of individuals to
own mineral rights had a lot to do with America's westward migration
in the 19th century the great gold rushes and such. Mining
was also one of the main things that paid for that expansion. But
we're straying from the subject. It's new to hear you say Africa's
fate hangs in the balance; I'm used to hearing you say the place
is hopeless. What would be a possible pathway to improvement?
Well, unbeknownst to most people, it seems that GDPs on the continent
have been expanding very rapidly over the last decade. Now, of course
those figures issued by inept, despotic, and kleptocratic
governments are highly questionable, but most of the countries
in Africa are actually starting to turn around, and strongly. Part
of it is because they're starting from such a low base. But most
of it is because things have improved so much from the way things
were in the '60s and '70s. In those days most of Africa was run
was under Papa Doc or worse.
may be so, but a major source of that growth is the Chinese money
pouring into the continent to lock up natural resources and
escape the dollar trap, to boot. Is that really a reason for optimism,
or does it just mean the new thieves in presidential ribbons will
continue gorging at the trough, with no lasting benefit to the people?
I remember when I first went to Zambia, in 1985. I don't believe
there was a bookstore in Lusaka although they sold a few
dog-eared Marxist tracts at what laughably passed for the best office
supply store. The same thing in Tanzania, where I stayed in the
best hotel, but had one light bulb to move between my bedroom and
bathroom. That kind of thing was typical. Now the whole continent
is changing. Everybody has a cell phone except me, I hate
the damn things and access to the Internet. People are moving
into the cities and joining the middle class.
stupid; they've just been sold on every stupid collectivist idea
that's come down the pike from Europe. A bloated state controlled
by a kleptocracy has been the pattern so far, but there's change
in the air. The disastrous colonial period and the catastrophic
post-colonial period are receding into history. As I recall, the
first African country to free itself from its colonial overlord
was Ghana in 1957, followed by a whole spate of independence movements
in the 1960s. Ghana was a nightmare under Nkrumah, but by the time
I went there in 1994, it was to play polo with our excellent partner
at Casey Research, David Galland talk about a small world!
and the place was already on its way up.
would be true for sub-Saharan Africa. I think the very first was
That's right; Libya in 1951, and then Egypt in 1952. At any rate,
I suspect they had to go through a stage during which the people
thought that independence alone would make their countries as rich
as those of their former colonial masters. That was the stage where
an African thought he was successful if he could wear a tie, have
a pocketful of pens, and carry a clipboard, even if he didn't know
how to write. When the Congo went independent, there were only something
like a couple dozen natives who even had a high-school education.
They were ripe prey for Uhuru jumpers and neo-colonialists from
the IMF and World Bank. That's changed. Those worthless institutions
are now on the ragged edge of bankruptcy, and Africans have become
much more sophisticated. There's an understanding that it's not
a matter of race; your enemy or friend can be white
or black. And soon a lot of them are going to be yellow.
really believe that?
I didn't say theyve all become free-marketeers. But I do think
they are starting to realize it doesn't matter if the thief is a
white guy on a throne in Europe or a fellow black who's made himself
president for life. People don't have to be deep political thinkers
to simply want governments that work meaning, they allow
prosperity to flourish. Of course, no government produces any prosperity.
But even kleptocrats are starting to realize it's much better to
steal 10% of a huge pie than to try to steal 90% of a tiny pie.
On the other hand, there's a huge problem in Africa, stemming from
the fact that none of these countries truly represent the historic
homelands of a specific people. The lines on the maps were all pretty
much drawn up in boardrooms in Europe during the 19th century without
regard for tribal homelands, differences in language, or even to
geographical barriers, in some cases. With the possible exception
of Egypt and to a much lesser extent Ethiopia each
of these countries is an agglomeration of different tribes, ethnic
groups, and religions that don't mix well together.
of this has been that the governments of these countries have become
prizes sought after by each group, to be used for profit and to
reward buddies by stealing from everyone else.
the countries be reorganized along tribal lines to result in something
more peaceful and durable?
That would be a step in the right direction. But they'd just find
other differences upon which to base plundering a new group of victims
for the benefit of a new group of fat cats. The best hope would
be the complete breakdown of the nation-state as a way to organize
society, and for the various groups to self-organize into voluntary
social systems, along the lines of the phyles we've discussed in
the past. Id say the same thing for Europe, Asia, and the Americas
as well, where different sorts of tribalism are alive and well.
The nation-state is definitely on its way out; it was a really suboptimal
I'm being kind way for people to organize.
so, but wouldn't you still have a threat of war between Hutus and
Tutsis and other such feuding tribes?
Maybe. Maybe not, if they weren't forced to mix. South Africa has
avoided a civil war in spite of having a dozen or more major black
tribes, as well as two white ones.
could be just around the corner there
Yes, they've been very fortunate and dodged the bullet so far. We'll
see. In Nigeria, where there were an estimated 300 different tribes
at the time of gaining independence in 1960, they had a civil war
that was knee-deep in gore during the late '60s in Biafra. Now there's
tension between the Muslims in the north and Christians in the south;
Nigeria, like all these countries, is an artificial construct that
should be disassembled. Sudan just broke in two for similar reasons,
and the new trouble
in northern Mali has similar roots. If these very different
peoples weren't forced to live under the same political system,
they wouldn't feel the need to fight for control of it. It's best
to let others go to hell in their own way.
I can see that.
I think this is a global trend, by the way as we discussed
in our recent conversation
on Europe. What about you did you see much evidence of
tribal conflict in the Congo?
asked people about that, actually. I asked them if a country as
big as the DRC second-largest in Africa, and eleventh-largest
in the world could stay together with all its different
tribes. I was reminded that the most recent war only ended in 2003,
with residual problems lasting into 2004 they were still
quite visible when I was there in 2006. It was all very fresh then,
and the country still had the appearance of an armed camp, with
many of the survivors dressed in rags
the ghosts of hundreds
of thousands of dead still in their eyes.
I saw signs of new prosperity many of the family farms I
flew over had new tin roofs on a building or two, and cheap Chinese
motor-scooters swarmed the jungle pathways like insects. There's
a highly visible UN military presence along the border between the
DRC and Rwanda, but still, Sunday afternoon brought out a lot of
smiling people in new, brightly colored clothes. It's just a beginning,
but these people are busy rebuilding. The ones I spoke with think
most Congolese don't want to hear about tribal divides and the like;
they just want to get back to earning a living.
That makes sense. With hundreds of different ethnic groups and local
languages, there's no reason for the place to pretend it's one country.
I was a big fan of Katanga trying to secede back in the '60s. At
least they share a common language in the DRC French. The
tribes all have their own languages, but decades of Belgian colonial
occupation at least left behind a lingua franca that helps
them all to communicate. It was the first African country I took
a real interest in. I still recommend a really good movie, Dark
of the Sun, about the mercenaries in Kasai province in the
'60s. I passed through M'Buji-Mayi when I was there. One thing I
remember clearly was an old 707, acting like a tramp steamer of
the air. The plane was totally without ID, painted in primer. I
walked up to the pilot, who was a really good-looking Belgian girl
in her 30s. One thing I asked her was how she navigated. She said,
"I'm the queen of the GPS," and showed me her handheld
device. I last saw that plane when I looked up as I was sitting
in a café in Uganda several days later. It made me feel like
that guy who saw the girl in the T-bird at the end of American
. Anyway, I love weird places, and Africa
is still full of them.
sorry to say that the people I met were more mundane. But again,
the answer to the question is not that the people feel all united
into one nation as a result of their history, but rather that no
one had time for nonsense. The people are tired of fighting. Sort
of like Colombia, at the end of the violencia.
different from the answer I got in Ghana, where the largest tribal
group by a large majority is the Ashanti, who are
seen as warlike. Since they are fierce and a majority, none of the
other tribes are willing to take them on, and there is a sort of
Which is different again from Zimbabwe, where the contest was largely
between two tribes, one represented by Mugabe who is a Shona
and the Ndebele tribe, led by Nkomo. The Shona won. Maybe
that will mean the crates of Shona stone sculptures I bought there
a few years ago will have political as well as artistic value someday.
But back to the DRC where did you go, just Kivu province?
time I flew into Lubumbashi in southern DRC, and this time I flew
into Bukavu, on the southern shore of Lake Kivu, which straddles
the border between the DRC and Rwanda. This is all to the west of
Lake Victoria, in an area that's sort of Africa's equivalent of
the Great Lakes. It's remote, mountainous, and covered with jungle
known to harbor both guerillas and gorillas. Both seem to be dying
out unfortunately in the case of the latter. I saw no sign
of either, but I heard of a guerilla attack on a town near one place
my chopper set down one day, six months prior.
I visited the same place in 1998, after the preceding war, the one
that overthrew the dictator Mobutu, who was a US stooge who looted
the country for many years. That was just before the war you're
talking about, in which Rwanda, Uganda, and several other countries
got involved; something like four million people died. Nobody knows
exactly how many. But I visited the city of Goma, on the north end
of Lake Kivu. I stayed at a friend's house on the lake, and we'd
go swimming in the lake each morning. The first morning, as we looked
across the water at the Rwanda border, only a few hundred yards
away, I asked my friend if he was able to take his daily swim during
the big troubles in Rwanda back in 1994 when they killed
about a half a million people in 100 days. He said no, because there
were bodies floating everywhere in the lake.
a big lake it takes three hours to reach Goma from Bukavu
They say almost a million people died in that particularly
never know it to look at the place today. There are colorful villages
on the shores of the lake, bright tropical flowers in abundance,
fishing boats on the water. Some very nice hotels and villas
I heard there are waterfront homes selling for a million dollars
in Bukavu. The water was so clear, you could see the bottom of the
lake in places, before the wash from the chopper ruffled the surface.
I looked and didn't see any bones.
Maybe they're covered with sediment now
something for future
archeologists to unearth and puzzle over the machete marks on the
bones. A million bucks for a house? I'll wait until I can get something
like that castle in Rhodesia on the Mozambique border I should have
bought during the war there. That was a 100-bagger, as it turned
out. Oh well, my whole life would have been totally different
an alternate reality.
again, why is it that you're more positive on Africa's prospects
now than in the past?
Well, there are two ways you can look at the future of Africa. One
is that when they have these wars that last decades, it changes
the local culture and engrains bad habits in the people that can
take a long time to get rid of. The other view is as you said: after
a certain amount of such stupidity, people get tired of it and start
acting more intelligently.
there a historical example of a country "cursed" with
great mineral wealth and actually benefiting from it in the
sense of the whole society achieving a higher standard of living,
rather than just the thieves in control of the government?
The only ones and this may sound biased, but it's just a
historical fact that people would do well to think about
are societies that were offshoots of Anglo-Saxon culture. The America
that was (before they turned it into the United States), Canada,
New Zealand, Australia.
would that be? The Protestant work ethic?
That's part of it. I think the ideas of the Enlightenment era
specifically the classical liberal ideas that so influenced the
likes of Jefferson and Franklin combined with the "rugged
individualism" imposed by frontier life had a lot to do with
it. The concept of English common law was a big factor. Ideas matter.
Actions flow from ideas.
Argentina didn't have the English tradition, but nonetheless was
once dominated by ideas that enabled wealth creation, and it became
one of the wealthiest countries on earth though most of the
silver that gives the place its name was actually in Peru and Bolivia.
But that was over a hundred years ago, and the steady replacement
of liberal ideas with socialist ones has been accompanied by a matching
fall in prosperity, in spite of great natural resources. It's no
longer a place to start a business, but it's a spectacular place
unlike Africa, which I view as a great place for merchant-adventurer
type business, but not so great as a place to live.
Africa is no bastion of free-market thinking this analysis
doesn't seem very hopeful.
Perhaps not now, but when people are tired of old ways that not
only don't work and periodically lead to genocide, they may open
up to new ideas. Many good people there like my friend Leon
Louw, who runs the Free
Market Foundation are looking for what works, and the
continent has improved immensely. Markets work. And there certainly
are abundant opportunities for entrepreneurs there.
is indeed a very good sign that such organizations are cropping
up all over Africa. Thompson Ayodele has done a very good job with
his Initiative for Public
Policy Analysis in Nigeria, as has James Shikwati with the Inter
Region Economic Network in Kenya, and my friend Kofi Akosah
with his Africa Youth Peace
Call in Ghana. But would you really encourage Westerners to
try their luck in Africa?
As we discussed in our conversation on starting out or starting
over, if I were a young adventurer, I'd go to Africa, even more
so than to Latin America or the Orient. The skills and experiences
and connections you have ordinary and offering no particular
advantage in the US would be extraordinary and of great advantage
there. And the more obscure the country, the better: I wouldn't
go to South Africa or Kenya, which are relatively developed. There
are fortunes to be made in really backward and troubled places.
Maybe Sao Tome, or Guinea Bissau, or Guinea Conakry. Maybe Cameroon,
or Gambia, or Benin.
Burundi? I stopped there on my way to the DRC this time I
confess I'd never even heard of it before.
I first heard of it because I collected stamps when I was a kid.
But yes, that's the sort of place I mean.
the way, on my previous trip to Africa, I stopped in Togo, which
you'd asked me to drop in on
Really? How was it?
was much nicer-looking than I expected, for a place so far off the
beaten track that almost no one even knows it exists. But maybe
I should have known that was a positive sign; if it was in the news,
that would almost certainly mean there were bad things going on.
Slowly winning the struggle for prosperity is not newsy. When I
got there, I saw a typical West African country, but with a lot
of visible wealth in the form of nice real estate around the capital
I also stopped
in Rwanda on this last trip, and it too looked cleaner and more
well-maintained than I expected. I found that very hopeful
a sign of a focus on economic progress, rather than picking fights
with neighboring countries.
I'd like to go to Togo some day, it being one of the relatively
few countries I haven't been to. I just want to check it out and
see what makes the place tick
I remember its postage stamps
But, we should
also mention that North Africa is something of a region apart, with
its own political dynamics. It also has mineral wealth, particularly
in hydrocarbons. Perhaps we should remind our readers of our conversation
on the Arab Spring, which is the main trend to be watching in
We should also say something about South Africa, which is still
one of the wealthiest countries in Africa, and a destination for
many investors' dollars, especially in the natural-resource sector
that we focus on.
Yes. In spite of that wealth, both in terms of one of the single
richest natural resource endowments in the world, and one of the
highest per capita GDPs in Africa, I have to say I don't think the
place is safe for investors and it's getting worse by the
day. We do not invest in any South Africa plays not for ideological
reasons, like those who opposed apartheid but because of
the country risk. The people running the show are not just thieves;
they are so hostile to enterprise, they've taken the place from
producing over 60% of the world's supply of gold a couple decades
ago to less than 12% of world gold production today. There's a high
risk of nationalization in the country, if not force majeure
in the form of violent chaos. South Africa is a powder keg with
a lit fuse of unknown length but it's lit. I have lots of
friends and relatives there and things seem mellow at the moment,
especially in Capetown, which is one of the prettiest places on
the planet. Then again, the whole world is at the edge of a financial
precipice at the moment.
so if South Africa is on its way down, is there a place in Africa
on its way up that you'd invest in?
Maybe Zimbabwe I might have to go back there. Perhaps I could
be persuaded that it has bottomed. It might have, now that it allows
people to use whatever currency they want. Mugabe is on his way
out, although African dictators seem to have preternaturally long
lifespans. This could be the time to get in cheap especially
if I was interested in living there... which I'm not. The problem
is keeping physical control of your property. It'd be highly speculative,
but cheap is the key. I'll buy anything if it's cheap enough. At
a low-enough price, the downside becomes negligible the potential
reward becomes vastly greater than the apparent risk.
enough" trumps even country risk. That applies to some of our
investments in Africa plays; they are discounted for being there,
which creates acceptable risk/reward ratios.
Yes. You can lose everything, investing in Africa but then,
increasingly, you can lose everything investing in the US
say, if someone finds a piece of wetlands on your farm or whatever
nonsense they come up with next.
so for investors, the bottom line is that there are opportunities,
but serious due diligence is required preferably via boots
on the ground and by waiting for the perfect pitch in terms
of a price low enough that the probability of a loss pales in comparison
to the possibility of a win.
Exactly. And if you're of a certain age or mental inclination, then
Africa is the closest thing to a wild frontier left on the planet,
a place to go and seek your fortune. But enter at your own risk.
well, then. Thanks for your insights.
I just don't want to hear from anyone's lawyer if they wander into
a war zone and don't resurface for a decade
. Talk to you next
then, take care.
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